Metrics & Expected Impact

1. North Star Metric

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Monthly Driver Churn Rate

Definition:
Percentage of active drivers in Month T who become inactive in Month T+1 (no completed trips for 30 consecutive days).

Baseline Assumption:
12% monthly churn in large metro market.

Target:
Reduce churn to 9% within 2–3 quarters of deployment.

A 3% absolute reduction increases average driver lifetime from ~8.3 months to ~11.1 months.

This directly impacts platform lifetime value.

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2. Economic Impact Metrics

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Driver Lifetime Value (LTV)

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Baseline LTV ≈
$4,150 gross contribution per driver.

Post-reduction LTV ≈
$5,550 gross contribution per driver.

Incremental LTV ≈ $1,400 per retained driver.

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Across 100,000 active drivers, even partial cohort impact translates into multi-million dollar long-term revenue preservation.

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Incentive Cost Efficiency

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Metric:
Retention Incentive Spend per Incremental Driver Retained

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Objective:
Maintain or reduce total incentive pool while increasing retention precision.

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The system must prove:

Incremental LTV > Retention Spend per Driver

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If not, economic leverage fails.

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3. Marketplace Stability Metrics -

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These validate systemic improvement beyond churn.

Peak Hour Supply Density
Active drivers per micro-cluster during surge windows.

Surge Volatility Index

Standard deviation of surge multiplier across peak periods.

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Ride Completion Rate
Percentage of matched rides successfully completed.

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Improved retention should:

• Increase supply density

• Reduce surge spikes

• Improve rider conversion

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4. Model Performance Metrics -

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To ensure reliability:

Precision at High-Risk Tier = 70%

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Recall = 60%

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AUC Score
Benchmark above historical baseline models.

False Positive Rate must remain controlled to prevent incentive leakage.

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5. Expected Strategic Impact -

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If executed correctly, this system shifts churn mitigation from reactive incentive deployment to predictive supply stabilisation.

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Expected outcomes:

• 2–3% reduction in monthly churn

• 15–20% increase in average driver lifetime

• Improved LTV-to-acquisition cost ratio

• Reduced surge volatility

• More stable supply-demand equilibrium

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The impact compounds over time as improved retention reduces reliance on continuous driver acquisition.